Twelve pillars, three engines. The method itself.
Why Most Americans Don’t Care About Your Market Call (And Why That Matters)
Most macro commentary ends the same way: “...so we’re overweight equities” or “...which is why we prefer duration.” That’s fine if you’re managing a portfolio. It’s what I do. Last week, I launched Lighthouse Crypto Macro with live-tracked positioning. The whole global macro book, covering equities...
Labor: The Source Code
There is no economy without labor. This is not a metaphor. People make things, build things, produce things. It is the literal foundation on which everything else rests. When we talk about economic cycles, we are really talking about labor cycles dressed up in different clothes. The transmission...
Prices: The Transmission Belt
Inflation doesn’t negotiate. GDP can disappoint and the Fed shrugs. Employment can soften and they wait for confirmation. But if inflation stays elevated, the Fed stays restrictive. There is no discretion here. Inflation is the only macro variable that directly controls the policy rate, and the...
Growth: The Second Derivative
GDP gets all the attention. It also gets everything wrong. By the time the Bureau of Economic Analysis tells you the economy grew 2.3% last quarter, you are looking at data that is 30 days stale, will be revised twice, and averages together components moving in opposite directions. GDP is a lagging...
Housing: The Collateral Engine
Previously in this series: Labor | Prices | Growth | Consumer Housing is not shelter. It is the financial system’s collateral backbone, the Fed’s primary transmission channel, and the single most rate-sensitive sector in the economy. Miss it, and you’re trading the economy of 2024 while living in...
Consumer: The Last Domino
Previously in this series: Labor | Prices | Growth The consumer is not a leading indicator. It is a lagging confirmation of what labor, credit, and confidence already told you. And it represents 68% of GDP. That is the paradox. Personal Consumption Expenditures is the single largest component of...
Business: The Forward Commitment
Previously in this series: Labor | Prices | Growth | Consumer | Housing Business investment is the most honest macro signal. Consumers spend out of habit. Governments spend out of inertia. Businesses spend out of conviction. When a CEO signs a purchase order for $50 million in equipment, that is...
Trade: The Pipeline
Previously in this series: Labor: The Source Code | Prices: The Transmission Belt | Growth: The Second Derivative | Consumer: The Last Domino | Housing: The Collateral Engine | Business: The Forward Commitment Trade is where domestic policy meets global reality. Every tariff, every currency move,...
Government: The Fiscal Overhang
The Diagnostic Dozen Educational Series Previously: Labor | Prices | Growth | Consumer | Housing | Business | Trade Everyone talks about the Fed. Not enough people talk about the entity that actually moves the most money through the system: the U.S. Treasury. The Federal Reserve sets the price of...
Financial: The Cascade
Previously in this series: Labor: The Source Code | Prices: The Transmission Belt | Growth: The Second Derivative | Consumer: The Last Domino | Housing: The Collateral Engine | Business: The Forward Commitment | Trade: The Transmission Belt | Government: The Fiscal Overhang The Fed sets a rate....
Plumbing: The Invisible Infrastructure
On September 17, 2019, something broke. Not in the economy. Not in the stock market. In the pipes underneath them. The overnight repo rate, a number that most people have never heard of and fewer still could define, spiked from 2.43% to a published benchmark of 5.25%, with intraday transactions...
Market Structure: The Weight of Evidence
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 ripped 2.51% on a ceasefire headline, its best day since April 2025. On Thursday, it tacked on another 0.62% to close at 6,824. Seven straight days up. The longest winning streak since October. The index reclaimed both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages in 48 hours....
Sentiment & Positioning: The Contrarian Edge
The AAII Bull-Bear spread printed -7.3% for the week ending April 8, the fourth straight week of elevated bearish readings. But the VIX sits at 19.2, 14% below its 50-day moving average. The VIX/VIX3M term structure is in deep contango at 0.88. Breadth has repaired: 54% of S&P 500 stocks are above...
Crypto Liquidity Impulse
Most liquidity indicators tell you where the ocean is. We built one that tells you which way the current is running. Everyone has a liquidity model now. Global M2. Net liquidity (balance sheet minus TGA minus RRP). The Hayes framework. The Alden framework. They all capture something real, and we...
⚓ Liquidity Transmission Framework
Mapping the Transmission from Treasury Markets to Crypto Collateral ⸻ As Lighthouse rolls out its Advisory Offerings, we’re publishing the backbone of our liquidity architecture — a model that tracks how stress flows through the system, from Federal Reserve plumbing to crypto collateral capacity....
Long-form. One thesis, taken all the way down.
Two-Speed Everywhere
Every calm headline has a fast engine and a stalling one underneath. Three of the gaps are now deep in their historical tails, and one regime holds them open.
Caught Both Ways
The Beacon · July 6, 2026
🔒 Read in PharosNo Landing
The Beacon · June 28, 2026
🔒 Read in PharosNo Put, No Cushion
The Beacon · June 24, 2026
🔒 Read in Pharos
The Fed Put, Retired
For fifteen years every selloff was bought on the same faith, that a chair stood behind the tape ready to rescue it. That chair takes his seat Wednesday, and he spent his career arguing against the rescue. The wrinkle is that disinflation is finally showing up, the one thing that usually buys the cu
Markets Turn in Order
The leading reads were flashing for weeks while credit and volatility slept. Friday was the tape catching up to an inside that had been coming apart since February. Markets do not turn all at once. They turn in order. The leading parts go first, quietly, in the places that never make the front...
The Widest Page in the Book
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in Pharos
The Honest Level
Executive Summary Term premium on the 10-year Treasury sits at roughly 70 basis points. A year ago it sat at 40. Five years ago it sat below zero. The drift is in one direction. We anchor the framework’s honest level at 150bps. It is the median reading from 1970 to 2007, and we use it because the...
Earnings Week, Macro Week
96 hours that test the read There are weeks where a lot of small things happen, and there are weeks where the whole economic story compresses into a single window. This is the second kind. Over the next ninety-six hours, we get the Federal Reserve decision, the four largest companies in America...
Two Economies
The Beacon · April 20, 2026 On Friday , we wrote the companion piece ahead of schedule. Three other writers had each moved the ball that week, and the conversation was ready for it. We promised the full chart pack would drop Sunday. A weekend hardware issue had other plans. Here it is Monday, with...
The Reflexive Bid
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in Pharos
The Beacon | Banking On Nonbanks
The conventional narrative about financial intermediation is fundamentally wrong. For decades, analysts have watched bank-led finance decline while nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) surge, interpreting this as a structural shift toward a nonbank-centric system. But a new paper from the Federal...
The Beacon | It's Getting Spooky
TL;DR Surface calm, shrinking cushion: funding looks orderly today, but the Federal Reserve’s Overnight Reverse Repurchase Facility (ON RRP) and bank reserves — our system’s shock absorbers — are materially thinner. Leading labor flows (quits, hires/ quits, hours worked) are rolling over even with...
The Beacon | The Last Mile of Disinflation
Lighthouse Macro Macro, Illuminated. A New Rhythm After several weeks rebuilding my research process and workflow, Lighthouse Macro relaunches today with a consistent publishing cadence structured around how I analyze and trade global macro themes. Each element has a defined role: Sundays → The...
From Foundations to Fault Lines — Part III
Earlier in this series: Part I: Cracks in the Foundations Part II: Collateral Fragility Part III: Seemingly Stable, Systemically Stressed
From Foundations to Fault Lines — Part II
Earlier in this series: Part I: Cracks in the Foundations Part II: Collateral Fragility Part III: Seemingly Stable, Systemically Stressed
From Foundations to Fault Lines — Part I
In this series: Part I: Cracks in the Foundations Part II: Collateral Fragility Part III: Seemingly Stable, Systemically Stressed
Bullion Brilliance
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosThe Vanishing Job-Hopper Premium
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosNavigating Trade Tensions
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosThe U.S. Housing Market in 2025
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosNew Year, New Paradigms
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosCracks Beneath The Surface
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosLabor Woes, Growth Slows
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosThe Dollar vs. Gold & Real Yields
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosFast reads on the print that just hit.
Openings Came Back. Nobody's Quitting.
THE BEAM · JULY 23, 2026
🔒 Read in PharosThe Week That Tests the Call
The Beam · July 1, 2026
🔒 Read in PharosCredit Isn't Listening
The Beam · June 29, 2026
🔒 Read in PharosThe Barrel Fell. The Pump Didn’t.
The Beam · June 18, 2026
🔒 Read in PharosTwo Prints In One Release
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosThe Long End Broke Five. Credit Hit Snooze.
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosThe Records Don't Agree With the Tape. The Fed Just Changed Hands.
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosAI Is Fragmenting the Cycle
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosThe Rally Has Two Tells
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosThe Broadening Broke
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosA 1.7% Print, a 0.14% Tell
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in Pharos
Stocks Printed a Record. Bonds and Gold Didn't Buy It.
The Beam | April 16, 2026 The S&P 500 closed April 15 at 7,022.96. A new all-time high. A ten percent rally off the late-March lows. The narrative is clean. Ceasefire, vol crushed, risk on, systematic funds re-leveraging into the bid. We’re seeing flows everywhere. We’re not seeing conviction....
The Silent Capitulation: ETF Exodus vs. On-Chain Accumulation
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in Pharos
The Beam & LNMS Report
For anyone who missed it: Less Noise, More Signal released their year-end “macro voices” report, and I was fortunate to be included alongside a strong group across TradFi and DeFi. My section touches on the data deluge investors now face — and why only a durable, disciplined framework can keep...
The Beam | Treasury Buybacks & The Mechanical Basis Squeeze
When Predictable Plumbing Becomes Profitable Signal The Mechanical Architecture Treasury buyback operations represent one of the last genuinely predictable microstructure arbitrages in global fixed income markets. Each bi-weekly operation creates a mechanical compression event where off-the-run...
Chaos in China
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosMonetary Monday
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosPositioning, in the open.
POSITIONING UPDATE: FEBRUARY 23, 2026
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosPositioning Update: Playing Defense in a Hollow Rally
I wanted to follow up on the January Horizon with the “so what”: how I’m translating the narrative into actual positioning. After a productive call with a Founding Member this week, I wanted to offer this level of tactical detail to other subscribers as well. Here is how we are translating this regi
🔒 Read in PharosThe data, laid out to be looked at.
Record High, Record Low
July 13, 2026. The Chartbook. Macro, illuminated.
🔒 Read in PharosThe Lighthouse Macro Chartbook
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosThe Fragile Record
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in PharosThe Chartbook - November 23, 2025
Equities sit near record highs while leading indicators continue their steep decline. The divergence is widening, not narrowing. This week’s Chartbook documents the divergence and what breaks first. Inside Section I: Proprietary Systemic Risk Indicators My Macro Risk Index (MRI) sits at +0.06σ,...
The month ahead, and where the risk sits.
The Vise
The Horizon · July 2026
🔒 Read in PharosMarkets Turn in Order, and the Order Is Almost Done
Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos.
🔒 Read in Pharos
The Splitting Cycle
The Horizon · May 2026 The full Horizon normally sits behind the paywall. This one runs free as the launch piece for the stack we’re building around the framework. Executive Summary Q1 2026 real GDP grew 2.0% annualized. Roughly 1.1 percentage points of that, more than half of the entire print,...
THE HORIZON | JANUARY 2026
The S&P 500 has printed fresh highs above 6,900. Volatility is subdued. Credit spreads are tight. On the surface, markets look stable. Under the hood, the system’s shock absorbers are gone. This is The Hollow Rally : a regime in which asset prices continue to levitate on residual liquidity, position
Early notes and announcements from the archive.
From Foundations to Fault Lines: Part IV
Just shy of a year ago we asked whether the Treasury market's foundations were weakening. Twenty-four charts on what the answer turned out to be In this series: Part I: Cracks in the Foundations (Aug 12, 2025) Part II: Collateral Fragility (Aug 19, 2025) Part III: Seemingly Stable, Systemically...
Pharos is Online
The Lighthouse Macro terminal is live for paid subscribers: The Watch, all twelve pillars, our proprietary series with the reads spelled out. Computed off the database we run the book from. Updated daily.