A macro prediction market with two numbers on every question. Where the crowd is priced. And where the Lighthouse framework prices it. Side by side, in public, on every market.
You never trade blind.
The first number is the market. It is where the crowd has priced the question. It moves with flow, with conviction, and with size.
The second number is ours. It is where the Lighthouse framework prices the same question, run off the same twelve-pillar engine that drives the research. It does not move because someone showed up with a big book. It moves when the data moves.
Put those two numbers next to each other and the thing that usually stays hidden becomes visible: the gap between what the market believes and what the framework reads. That gap is the entire point.
In a one-number market, the player with the most size and the best information has the edge, and everyone else is guessing against them. The small account is the exit liquidity.
Put a second number on the screen and that asymmetry breaks. A large book can push the market price around. It cannot push the framework's number, because the framework is not for sale. It is the same reference for a five-hundred-dollar account and a five-hundred-million-dollar one. The whale and the broke guy are reading off the same line.
That does not mean the framework is always right. It means nobody is trading in the dark, which is the only condition under which a small participant has a fair shot at all.
The spread between framework-implied and market-implied, tracked across every market and through time, is not exhaust. It is the product. Where does the crowd systematically diverge from the model, by how much, in which regimes, and who turned out to be right? That is a research series you cannot get anywhere else, because nowhere else publishes the model number next to the market number.
Every market carries a live framework-vs-market spread. The history of that spread is queryable, not anecdotal.
When the two numbers disagree, one of them is more right. Resolution settles it. The framework's track record is built in public, not asserted.
The same Diagnostic Dozen engine that prices the market tags the macro regime around it. Disagreement is never context-free.
Pharos is being built now, alongside the new research platform, the live dashboards, and the next iteration of the indicators. We are not putting a date on the page. We are putting the work on the page. Research subscribers are first through the door when it opens, and the framework that prices it is the framework they already read.
Be inside before it opens → Back to Lighthouse Macro